{"id":11109,"date":"2020-04-08T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T11:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11109"},"modified":"2022-07-21T12:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T15:23:18","slug":"coronavirus-lethality-is-the-death-rate-8-or-0-8-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/tr\/koronavirus-olum-orani-italyada-8-veya-0-8-dir\/","title":{"rendered":"Koronavir\u00fcs \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcll\u00fc\u011f\u00fc: \u0130talya'da \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 8 mi yoksa 0,8% mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcll\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne ili\u015fkin rakamlar \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermektedir. \u0130talya'da yetkililer 8-9% civar\u0131nda bir \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 bildirirken, Almanya ve Japonya 1-2%'ye yak\u0131n rakamlar bildirmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu neden oluyor?<\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan rakamlara g\u00f6re 64 bin teyit edilmi\u015f koronavir\u00fcs enfeksiyonuna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 6 binden biraz fazla \u00f6l\u00fcm ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Bu da 9.3%'lik bir \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131 demek. Olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek, endi\u015fe verici.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak, Japonya ~1K vakada 33 \u00f6l\u00fcm (3.3% \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131) ve Almanya 34K'ya yak\u0131n do\u011frulanm\u0131\u015f vakada sadece 159 \u00f6l\u00fcm bildirmi\u015ftir... bekleyin, bu sadece 0.5% \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131d\u0131r.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"721\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png 721w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><figcaption>Japonya'dan alt\u0131 kat, \u0130talya'dan ise neredeyse 20 kat daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Almanya neyi farkl\u0131 yap\u0131yor?<br> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Benim zaten bir fikrim var, ancak mevcut t\u00fcm teorileri ele alal\u0131m:<br> &nbsp;1) En bariz olan\u0131: Almanya'daki sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemi daha donan\u0131ml\u0131<br> 2) Almanlar yenilik\u00e7i tedaviler kullan\u0131yor<br> 3) Almanya hala salg\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde oldu\u011fundan, \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131n\u0131n dengelenmesi i\u00e7in \"yeterli zaman\" yoktu<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ve daha az belirgin olan\u0131: sadece daha fazla insan\u0131 test ediyorlar. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ne kadar etkiliyor? En az\u0131ndan on kat. On kat daha fazla insan\u0131 test ediyorlar ve \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131n\u0131 bu kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren \u015fey de bu, yani ger\u00e7ekte:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Enfeksiyon oranlar\u0131 muhtemelen 10 kat daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr<\/li><li>\u00d6l\u00fcm oranlar\u0131 muhtemelen 10 kat daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Etkilenen bireylerin toplam say\u0131s\u0131 hakk\u0131nda do\u011fru bir tahminde bulunam\u0131yoruz, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir\u00e7o\u011funda semptomlar ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En kolay a\u00e7\u0131klama genellikle do\u011fru oland\u0131r. Buna bilimde Okam Usturas\u0131 denir... ve bu, rakamlardaki bu tutars\u0131zl\u0131k i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a basit bir a\u00e7\u0131klamad\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca bu say\u0131, \u00f6n saflarda yer alan sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n\u0131n \"alg\u0131s\u0131na\" daha yak\u0131nd\u0131r. Koronavir\u00fcs enfeksiyonundan oransal olarak \u00e7ok fazla insan \u00f6lm\u00fcyor - yani o kadar da ciddi de\u011fil - ancak viralite solunum yolu hastal\u0131klar\u0131nda al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zdan daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in rakamlar y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"494\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png 494w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255-300x275.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><figcaption>Almanlar asl\u0131nda semptom g\u00f6stermeseler bile insanlar\u0131 aktif olarak test ediyor. Toplumdaki enfeksiyon oran\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fru tahmin etmenin tek yolu budur.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Burada s\u00f6yleyebilece\u011fim tek bir c\u00fcmle olsayd\u0131, o da \u015fu olurdu: panik yapmay\u0131n.  Bu zamanlar geride kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enfeksiyonu \u00f6nlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131n, ellerinizi y\u0131kay\u0131n, ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k sisteminizi iyi ayarlay\u0131n, hepsi bu. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeterli kritik bak\u0131m mevcutsa \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl bir neden olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tedavi s\u00fcreci devam ediyor, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l a\u015f\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z olacak ve t\u00fcm bunlar ge\u00e7ecek. Bahse girerim koronavir\u00fcs enfeksiyonu bir sonraki do\u011fum g\u00fcn\u00fc partinizde trend topic olmayacak.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Benim zaten bir fikrim var, ancak mevcut t\u00fcm teorileri ele alal\u0131m:  1) En bariz olan\u0131: Almanya'daki sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemi daha donan\u0131ml\u0131 2) Almanlar yenilik\u00e7i tedaviler kullan\u0131yor 3) Almanya hala salg\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde, bu nedenle \u00f6l\u00fcm oran\u0131n\u0131n stabilize olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \"yeterli zaman\" yoktu Ve [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419],"tags":[388,444,443,445,447,446,448,449],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronvairus lethality: 8 or 0.8% in Italy? - See the blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus lethality differ dramatically between countries.Italy reports 8-9%, while Germany and reported less than 1-2%.Why? 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