{"id":11109,"date":"2020-04-08T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T11:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11109"},"modified":"2022-07-21T12:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T15:23:18","slug":"coronavirus-lethality-is-the-death-rate-8-or-0-8-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/ro\/coronavirus-letalitate-este-rata-de-mortii-8-sau-0-8-in-italie\/","title":{"rendered":"Letalitatea Coronavirus: este rata de mortalitate 8 sau 0,8% \u00een Italia?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cifrele privind letalitatea coronavirusului difer\u0103 dramatic. \u00cen timp ce \u00een Italia, autorit\u0103\u021bile raporteaz\u0103 o rat\u0103 de mortalitate \u00een jur de 8-9%, Germania \u0219i Japonia au raportat cifre mai apropiate de 1-2%.<\/p>\n<p>De ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 asta?<\/p>\n<p>Num\u0103rul raportat ast\u0103zi a fost de pu\u021bin peste 6.000 de decese pentru 64.000 de infec\u021bii confirmate cu coronavirus. Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 o rat\u0103 a mortalit\u0103\u021bii de 9,3%. Destul de mare, \u00eengrijor\u0103tor.<\/p>\n<p>Cu toate acestea, Japonia a raportat 33 de decese din aproximativ 1 000 de cazuri (rata mortalit\u0103\u021bii de 3,3%), iar Germania a raportat doar 159 de decese din aproape 34 000 de cazuri confirmate... a\u0219tepta\u021bi, asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 o rat\u0103 a mortalit\u0103\u021bii de doar 0,5%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"721\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png 721w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><figcaption>De \u0219ase ori mai mic\u0103 dec\u00e2t \u00een Japonia \u0219i de aproape 20 de ori mai mic\u0103 dec\u00e2t \u00een Italia. Ce face Germania \u00een mod diferit?<br> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Am deja o opinie, dar haide\u021bi s\u0103 analiz\u0103m toate teoriile disponibile:<br> &nbsp;1) Cel mai evident: sistemul de s\u0103n\u0103tate din Germania este mai bine echipat<br> 2) Germanii folosesc tratamente inovatoare<br> 3) Germania se afl\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 \u00een primele zile ale epidemiei, deci nu a existat \"suficient timp\" pentru ca rata mortalit\u0103\u021bii s\u0103 se stabilizeze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0218i cea mai pu\u021bin evident\u0103: pur \u0219i simplu testeaz\u0103 mai multe persoane. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e2t de mult are impact? De cel pu\u021bin zece ori, cel pu\u021bin. Se testeaz\u0103 de zece ori mai mul\u021bi oameni, iar asta face ca rata mortalit\u0103\u021bii s\u0103 scad\u0103 at\u00e2t de mult, deci \u00een realitate:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Ratele de infec\u021bie sunt probabil de 10 ori mai mici<\/li><li>Ratele de mortalitate sunt probabil de 10 ori mai mici<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Pur \u0219i simplu nu avem o estimare exact\u0103 a num\u0103rului total de persoane afectate, deoarece multe dintre ele nu prezint\u0103 simptome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cea mai simpl\u0103 explica\u021bie este adesea cea corect\u0103. \u00cen \u0219tiin\u021b\u0103 se nume\u0219te \"lama lui Okam\"... \u0219i este o explica\u021bie destul de simpl\u0103 pentru aceast\u0103 discrepan\u021b\u0103 \u00een cifre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De asemenea, acest num\u0103r este mai aproape de \"percep\u021bia\" profesioni\u0219tilor din domeniul s\u0103n\u0103t\u0103\u021bii din prima linie. \u00cen propor\u021bie, nu mor mul\u021bi oameni din cauza infec\u021biei cu coronavirus - deci, nu este at\u00e2t de grav - totu\u0219i, cifrele sunt mari pentru c\u0103 viralitatea este mai mare dec\u00e2t cea cu care suntem obi\u0219nui\u021bi \u00een cazul bolilor respiratorii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"494\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png 494w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255-300x275.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><figcaption>De fapt, germanii testeaz\u0103 \u00een mod activ oamenii, chiar dac\u0103 nu prezint\u0103 simptome. Aceasta este singura modalitate de a avea o estimare exact\u0103 a ratei de infectare a popula\u021biei.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Dac\u0103 a\u0219 putea s\u0103 spun o singur\u0103 fraz\u0103, aceasta ar fi: nu intra\u021bi \u00een panic\u0103.  Aceste vremuri au trecut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cencerca\u021bi s\u0103 preveni\u021bi infec\u021biile, sp\u0103la\u021bi-v\u0103 pe m\u00e2ini, p\u0103stra\u021bi sistemul imunitar bine pus la punct \u0219i asta este tot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Probabilitatea unei cauze letale este sc\u0103zut\u0103, dac\u0103 sunt disponibile \u00eengrijiri critice adecvate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Un tratament este \u00een curs de desf\u0103\u0219urare, vom avea vaccinuri pentru anul viitor \u0219i toat\u0103 chestia asta va trece. Pun pariu c\u0103 infec\u021bia cu coronavirus nu va fi un trending topic p\u00e2n\u0103 la urm\u0103toarea ta petrecere aniversar\u0103.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Am deja o opinie, dar haide\u021bi s\u0103 analiz\u0103m toate teoriile disponibile:  1) Cea mai evident\u0103: sistemul de s\u0103n\u0103tate din Germania este mai bine dotat 2) Germanii folosesc tratamente inovatoare 3) Germania se afl\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 \u00een primele zile ale epidemiei, deci nu a fost \"suficient timp\" pentru ca rata mortalit\u0103\u021bii s\u0103 se stabilizeze \u0218i [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419],"tags":[388,444,443,445,447,446,448,449],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronvairus lethality: 8 or 0.8% in Italy? - See the blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus lethality differ dramatically between countries.Italy reports 8-9%, while Germany and reported less than 1-2%.Why? 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He has a Ph.D. and solid scientific background in Psychopharmacology and experience as a Guest Researcher at the Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry (Germany) and Researcher in D'Or Institute for Research and Education (IDOR, Brazil). Fabricio holds over 2500 citations in Google Scholar. He has 10 years of experience in small innovative businesses, with relevant experience in product design and innovation management. 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