{"id":11109,"date":"2020-04-08T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T11:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11109"},"modified":"2022-07-21T12:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T15:23:18","slug":"coronavirus-lethality-is-the-death-rate-8-or-0-8-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/pt\/coronavirus-letais-e-a-taxa-de-morte-8-ou-0-8-in-italy\/","title":{"rendered":"Letalidade do Coronavirus: a taxa de mortalidade \u00e9 8 ou 0,8% na It\u00e1lia?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Os n\u00fameros sobre a letalidade do coronav\u00edrus diferem drasticamente. Enquanto na It\u00e1lia, as autoridades relatam uma taxa de mortalidade em torno de 8-9%, a Alemanha e o Jap\u00e3o relataram n\u00fameros mais pr\u00f3ximos a 1-2%.<\/p>\n<p>Por que isso acontece?<\/p>\n<p>O n\u00famero de mortes hoje foi um pouco mais de 6K por 64K confirmou a infec\u00e7\u00e3o pelo coronav\u00edrus. Essa \u00e9 uma taxa de mortalidade de 9,3%. Bastante alta, preocupante.<\/p>\n<p>Entretanto, o Jap\u00e3o relatou 33 mortes em ~1K casos (3,3% de mortalidade) e a Alemanha relatou apenas 159 mortes em cerca de 34K casos confirmados... espere, ou seja, apenas 0,5% de mortalidade.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"721\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png 721w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><figcaption>Seis vezes menor que o Jap\u00e3o e quase 20 vezes menor que a It\u00e1lia. O que a Alemanha est\u00e1 fazendo de diferente?<br> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Eu j\u00e1 tenho uma opini\u00e3o, mas vamos cobrir todas as teorias dispon\u00edveis:<br> &nbsp;1) O mais \u00f3bvio: o sistema de sa\u00fade na Alemanha est\u00e1 mais bem equipado<br> 2) Os germ\u00e2nicos est\u00e3o usando tratamentos inovadores<br> 3) A Alemanha ainda est\u00e1 nos primeiros dias do surto, portanto n\u00e3o houve \"tempo suficiente\" para que a taxa de mortalidade se estabilizasse<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>E o menos \u00f3bvio: eles est\u00e3o simplesmente testando mais pessoas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Qual \u00e9 o seu impacto? DEZ TEMPOS, pelo menos. Eles est\u00e3o testando dez vezes mais pessoas, e \u00e9 isso que faz a taxa de mortalidade diminuir tanto, assim na realidade:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>As taxas de infec\u00e7\u00e3o s\u00e3o provavelmente 10 vezes menores<\/li><li>As taxas de mortalidade s\u00e3o provavelmente 10 vezes mais baixas<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>N\u00f3s simplesmente n\u00e3o temos uma estimativa precisa do n\u00famero total de indiv\u00edduos afetados, porque muitos deles n\u00e3o desenvolvem os sintomas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A explica\u00e7\u00e3o mais f\u00e1cil \u00e9 muitas vezes a mais correta. \u00c9 chamada de Okam Razor na ci\u00eancia... e esta \u00e9 uma explica\u00e7\u00e3o bastante simples para esta discrep\u00e2ncia nos n\u00fameros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Al\u00e9m disso, este n\u00famero est\u00e1 mais pr\u00f3ximo da \"percep\u00e7\u00e3o\" dos profissionais de sa\u00fade nas linhas de frente. Em propor\u00e7\u00e3o, n\u00e3o h\u00e1 muitas pessoas morrendo da infec\u00e7\u00e3o pelo coronav\u00edrus - portanto, n\u00e3o t\u00e3o graves - por\u00e9m, os n\u00fameros s\u00e3o altos porque a viralidade \u00e9 maior do que a que estamos acostumados para as doen\u00e7as respirat\u00f3rias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"494\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png 494w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255-300x275.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><figcaption>Os germ\u00e2nicos est\u00e3o de fato testando ativamente as pessoas, mesmo que elas n\u00e3o apresentem sintomas. Essa \u00e9 a \u00fanica maneira de se ter uma estimativa precisa da taxa de infec\u00e7\u00e3o na popula\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Se eu pudesse ter uma frase a dizer aqui, seria: n\u00e3o entre em p\u00e2nico.  Este tempo acabou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tente prevenir infec\u00e7\u00f5es, lave as m\u00e3os, mantenha o sistema de imunidade bem ajustado, e pronto. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A probabilidade de uma causa letal \u00e9 baixa, se houver um cuidado cr\u00edtico adequado dispon\u00edvel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Um tratamento est\u00e1 em andamento, teremos vacinas para o pr\u00f3ximo ano e tudo isso passar\u00e1. Aposto que a infec\u00e7\u00e3o pelo coronav\u00edrus n\u00e3o ser\u00e1 um t\u00f3pico de tend\u00eancia em sua pr\u00f3xima festa de anivers\u00e1rio.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eu j\u00e1 tenho uma opini\u00e3o, mas vamos cobrir todas as teorias dispon\u00edveis:  1) A mais \u00f3bvia: o sistema de sa\u00fade na Alemanha est\u00e1 mais bem equipado 2) Os alem\u00e3es est\u00e3o usando tratamentos inovadores 3) A Alemanha ainda est\u00e1 nos primeiros dias do surto, portanto n\u00e3o houve \"tempo suficiente\" para que a taxa de mortalidade se estabilizasse E [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419],"tags":[388,444,443,445,447,446,448,449],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronvairus lethality: 8 or 0.8% in Italy? - See the blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus lethality differ dramatically between countries.Italy reports 8-9%, while Germany and reported less than 1-2%.Why? 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He has a Ph.D. and solid scientific background in Psychopharmacology and experience as a Guest Researcher at the Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry (Germany) and Researcher in D'Or Institute for Research and Education (IDOR, Brazil). Fabricio holds over 2500 citations in Google Scholar. He has 10 years of experience in small innovative businesses, with relevant experience in product design and innovation management. 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