{"id":11109,"date":"2020-04-08T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T11:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11109"},"modified":"2022-07-21T12:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T15:23:18","slug":"coronavirus-lethality-is-the-death-rate-8-or-0-8-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/nl\/coronavirus-lethality-is-de-dood-ratio-8-of-0-8-in-italy\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus letaliteit: is het sterftecijfer 8 of 0,8% in Itali\u00eb?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>De cijfers over de dodelijkheid van het coronavirus lopen sterk uiteen. Terwijl de autoriteiten in Itali\u00eb een sterftecijfer van ongeveer 8-9% rapporteren, hebben Duitsland en Japan cijfers gemeld die dichter bij 1-2% liggen.<\/p>\n<p>Waarom gebeurt dat?<\/p>\n<p>Het cijferrapport van vandaag was iets meer dan 6K doden voor 64K bevestigde coronavirusinfecties. Dat is een sterftecijfer van 9,3%. Behoorlijk hoog, verontrustend.<\/p>\n<p>Japan meldde echter 33 doden op ~1K gevallen (3,3% sterftecijfer) en Duitsland meldde slechts 159 doden op bijna 34K bevestigde gevallen... wacht, dat is slechts 0,5% sterftecijfer.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"721\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png 721w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><figcaption>Zes keer lager dan Japan en bijna 20 keer lager dan Itali\u00eb. Wat doet Duitsland anders?<br> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Ik heb al een mening, maar laten we alle beschikbare theorie\u00ebn bekijken:<br> &nbsp;1) De meest voor de hand liggende: het gezondheidsstelsel in Duitsland is beter uitgerust<br> 2) De Duitsers gebruiken innovatieve behandelingen<br> 3) Duitsland staat nog aan het begin van de uitbraak, dus er was niet \"genoeg tijd\" om het sterftecijfer te stabiliseren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En het minder voor de hand liggende: ze testen gewoon meer mensen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hoeveel invloed heeft het? TIEN KEER, minstens. Ze testen tien keer meer mensen, en dat is wat het sterftecijfer zo omlaag brengt:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Infectie percentages zijn waarschijnlijk 10 keer lager<\/li><li>Het sterftecijfer is waarschijnlijk 10 keer lager<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>We hebben gewoon geen nauwkeurige schatting van het totale aantal getroffen personen, omdat veel van hen de symptomen niet ontwikkelen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De makkelijkste verklaring is vaak de juiste. Het heet het Okam Scheermes in de wetenschap... en dat is een vrij eenvoudige verklaring voor deze discrepantie in de cijfers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ook ligt dit aantal dichter bij de \"perceptie\" van gezondheidswerkers in de frontlinie. In verhouding sterven er niet veel mensen aan de coronavirusinfectie - dus niet zo ernstig - maar de aantallen zijn hoog omdat de viraliteit hoger is dan we gewend zijn voor aandoeningen van de luchtwegen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"494\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png 494w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255-300x275.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><figcaption>De Duitsers testen actief mensen, zelfs als ze geen symptomen vertonen. Dat is de enige manier om een nauwkeurige schatting te krijgen van het besmettingspercentage in de bevolking.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Als ik hier \u00e9\u00e9n zin zou mogen zeggen, zou het zijn: geen paniek.  Deze tijd is voorbij.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Probeer besmetting te voorkomen, was je handen, houd het immuniteitssysteem goed ingesteld, en dat is het. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De kans op een dodelijke oorzaak is klein, als adequate kritieke zorg beschikbaar is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Er is een behandeling aan de gang, we hebben vaccins voor het komende jaar en dit hele ding zal overgaan. Ik wed dat het coronavirus geen trending topic zal zijn op je volgende verjaardagsfeestje.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ik heb al een mening, maar laten we alle beschikbare theorie\u00ebn behandelen:  1) De meest voor de hand liggende: het gezondheidssysteem in Duitsland is beter uitgerust 2) De Duitsers gebruiken innovatieve behandelingen 3) Duitsland is nog aan het begin van de uitbraak, dus er was niet \"genoeg tijd\" voor het sterftecijfer om zich te stabiliseren En [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419],"tags":[388,444,443,445,447,446,448,449],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronvairus lethality: 8 or 0.8% in Italy? - See the blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus lethality differ dramatically between countries.Italy reports 8-9%, while Germany and reported less than 1-2%.Why? 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He has a Ph.D. and solid scientific background in Psychopharmacology and experience as a Guest Researcher at the Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry (Germany) and Researcher in D'Or Institute for Research and Education (IDOR, Brazil). Fabricio holds over 2500 citations in Google Scholar. He has 10 years of experience in small innovative businesses, with relevant experience in product design and innovation management. 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