{"id":11109,"date":"2020-04-08T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T11:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11109"},"modified":"2022-07-21T12:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T15:23:18","slug":"coronavirus-lethality-is-the-death-rate-8-or-0-8-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/it\/coronavirus-letalita-e-il-tasso-di-morte-8-o-0-8-in-italia\/","title":{"rendered":"Letalit\u00e0 del Coronavirus: il tasso di mortalit\u00e0 \u00e8 8 o 0,8% in Italia?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I numeri sulla letalit\u00e0 del coronavirus differiscono drasticamente. Mentre in Italia le autorit\u00e0 riportano un tasso di mortalit\u00e0 intorno a 8-9%, Germania e Giappone hanno riportato numeri pi\u00f9 vicini a 1-2%.<\/p>\n<p>Perch\u00e9 succede?<\/p>\n<p>Il numero riportato oggi \u00e8 di poco pi\u00f9 di 6.000 decessi per 64.000 infezioni da coronavirus confermate. Si tratta di un tasso di mortalit\u00e0 del 9,3%. Piuttosto alto e preoccupante.<\/p>\n<p>Tuttavia, il Giappone ha riportato 33 morti su circa 1.000 casi (tasso di mortalit\u00e0 di 3,3%) e la Germania ha riportato solo 159 morti su quasi 34.000 casi confermati... aspetta, questo \u00e8 solo un tasso di mortalit\u00e0 di 0,5%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"721\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png 721w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><figcaption>Sei volte inferiore al Giappone e quasi 20 volte inferiore all'Italia. Cosa fa la Germania di diverso?<br> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Ho gi\u00e0 un'opinione, ma esaminiamo tutte le teorie disponibili:<br> &nbsp;1) La pi\u00f9 ovvia: il sistema sanitario in Germania \u00e8 meglio attrezzato<br> 2) I tedeschi utilizzano trattamenti innovativi<br> 3) La Germania \u00e8 ancora agli inizi dell'epidemia, quindi non c'\u00e8 stato \"abbastanza tempo\" perch\u00e9 il tasso di mortalit\u00e0 si stabilizzasse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>E la meno ovvia: stanno semplicemente testando pi\u00f9 persone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quanto incide? Almeno dieci volte. Si testano dieci volte pi\u00f9 persone, ed \u00e8 questo che fa scendere il tasso di mortalit\u00e0, quindi nella realt\u00e0:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>I tassi di infezione sono probabilmente 10 volte inferiori<\/li><li>I tassi di mortalit\u00e0 sono probabilmente 10 volte inferiori<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Semplicemente non abbiamo una stima accurata del numero totale di individui colpiti, perch\u00e9 molti di loro non sviluppano i sintomi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La spiegazione pi\u00f9 semplice \u00e8 spesso quella giusta. Nella scienza si chiama Rasoio di Okam... ed \u00e8 una spiegazione abbastanza semplice per questa discrepanza nei numeri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inoltre, questo numero \u00e8 pi\u00f9 vicino alla \"percezione\" degli operatori sanitari in prima linea. In proporzione, non sono molte le persone che muoiono a causa dell'infezione da coronavirus - quindi, non \u00e8 cos\u00ec grave - tuttavia, i numeri sono alti perch\u00e9 la viralit\u00e0 \u00e8 superiore a quella a cui siamo abituati per le malattie respiratorie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"494\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png 494w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255-300x275.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><figcaption>I tedeschi stanno infatti testando attivamente le persone, anche se non presentano sintomi. \u00c8 l'unico modo per avere una stima accurata del tasso di infezione nella popolazione.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Se potessi dire una frase, sarebbe: non fatevi prendere dal panico.  Questi tempi sono finiti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cercate di prevenire le infezioni, lavatevi le mani, mantenete il sistema immunitario ben impostato, e questo \u00e8 tutto. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La probabilit\u00e0 di una causa letale \u00e8 bassa, se \u00e8 disponibile un'adeguata assistenza critica. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c8 in corso un trattamento, avremo vaccini per il prossimo anno e tutta questa storia passer\u00e0. Scommetto che l'infezione da coronavirus non sar\u00e0 un argomento di tendenza alla vostra prossima festa di compleanno.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ho gi\u00e0 un'opinione, ma esaminiamo tutte le teorie disponibili:  1) La pi\u00f9 ovvia: il sistema sanitario tedesco \u00e8 meglio attrezzato 2) I tedeschi utilizzano trattamenti innovativi 3) La Germania \u00e8 ancora agli inizi dell'epidemia, quindi non c'\u00e8 stato \"abbastanza tempo\" perch\u00e9 il tasso di mortalit\u00e0 si stabilizzasse E [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419],"tags":[388,444,443,445,447,446,448,449],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronvairus lethality: 8 or 0.8% in Italy? - See the blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus lethality differ dramatically between countries.Italy reports 8-9%, while Germany and reported less than 1-2%.Why? 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He has a Ph.D. and solid scientific background in Psychopharmacology and experience as a Guest Researcher at the Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry (Germany) and Researcher in D'Or Institute for Research and Education (IDOR, Brazil). Fabricio holds over 2500 citations in Google Scholar. He has 10 years of experience in small innovative businesses, with relevant experience in product design and innovation management. 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