{"id":28571,"date":"2023-07-11T14:22:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-11T17:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/psychedelic-medicine-copy\/"},"modified":"2023-07-11T17:29:51","modified_gmt":"2023-07-11T20:29:51","slug":"scientific-prediction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/hu\/tudomanyos-elorejelzes\/","title":{"rendered":"Tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s: Egy \"tal\u00e1lgat\u00e1s\", amely sok id\u0151t takar\u00edthat meg nek\u00fcnk"},"content":{"rendered":"

A tudom\u00e1ny a logik\u00e1r\u00f3l \u00e9s az eredm\u00e9nyekr\u0151l sz\u00f3l. Am\u00edg egy adott jelens\u00e9gre vonatkoz\u00f3an l\u00e1tod az eredm\u00e9nyt, addig nem tekintik \u00e9rv\u00e9nyesnek. De ez egy id\u0151ig\u00e9nyes folyamat, \u00e9s h\u00f3napokig kell v\u00e1rni a k\u00edv\u00e1nt eredm\u00e9nyre, \u00e9s a v\u00e1rakoz\u00e1si id\u0151 alatt sok minden t\u00f6rt\u00e9nhet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mi lenne, ha azon a ter\u00fcleten, ahol csak az eredm\u00e9nyek sz\u00e1m\u00edtanak, j\u00f3sl\u00f3 tal\u00e1lgat\u00e1sokkal sokkal gyorsabban \u00e9rn\u00e9nk el eredm\u00e9nyeket? Nos, ez tal\u00e1n illegitimnek hangzik, de val\u00f3j\u00e1ban teljesen megszokott. \u00c9s ezt nevezik tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s<\/strong>. Amint a neve is mutatja, itt a j\u00f3slatok az\u00e9rt k\u00e9sz\u00fclnek, hogy gyorsan v\u00e9gezz\u00fcnk a kutat\u00e1ssal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ebben a cikkben megismerked\u00fcnk ezzel a k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6s t\u00e9m\u00e1val, mik\u00f6zben v\u00e1laszt adunk olyan k\u00e9rd\u00e9sekre, mint p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul, hogy a tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s hogyan seg\u00edt rengeteg id\u0151t megtakar\u00edtani. Val\u00f3ban \u00e9rv\u00e9nyes? Megb\u00edzhat\u00f3 lesz-e? \u00e9s m\u00e9g sok minden m\u00e1s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mit jelent a tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9snek nevezz\u00fck a tudom\u00e1nyos elm\u00e9letek \u00e9s el\u0151zetes megfigyel\u00e9sek alapj\u00e1n a j\u00f6v\u0151ben v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an bek\u00f6vetkez\u0151 term\u00e9szeti folyamatra vagy esem\u00e9nyre vonatkoz\u00f3 kijelent\u00e9st vagy hipot\u00e9zist. Ez egy olyan logikai k\u00f6vetkeztet\u00e9s, amely \u00e1ltal\u00e1nosan haszn\u00e1lt elm\u00e9leteken \u00e9s empirikus adatokon alapul, \u00e9s amely tov\u00e1bbi kutat\u00e1sokkal vagy gondos megfigyel\u00e9sekkel igazolhat\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Egyszer\u0171en fogalmazva, egy bizonyos, a j\u00f6v\u0151ben bek\u00f6vetkez\u0151 esem\u00e9ny megj\u00f3sl\u00e1s\u00e1t a m\u00faltban bek\u00f6vetkezett azonos esem\u00e9ny el\u0151re meghat\u00e1rozott halmaz\u00e1val tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9snek nevezz\u00fck. A tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek k\u00e9sz\u00edt\u00e9se seg\u00edthet elm\u00e9ly\u00edteni a term\u00e9szet meg\u00e9rt\u00e9s\u00e9t, \u00e9s seg\u00edthet abban, hogy t\u00e9nyeken alapul\u00f3, \u00e9sszer\u0171 d\u00f6nt\u00e9seket hozzunk. Egy tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st \u00e1ltal\u00e1ban logikus \u00e9rvel\u00e9ssel, megalapozott elm\u00e9letekkel \u00e9s empirikus adatokkal kell al\u00e1t\u00e1masztani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A hipot\u00e9zis ugyanaz, mint a j\u00f3slat?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A hipot\u00e9zis \u00e9s a j\u00f3slat annak ellen\u00e9re, hogy szorosan kapcsol\u00f3dnak egym\u00e1shoz, nem ugyanaz. A hipot\u00e9zis egy tudom\u00e1nyos megfigyel\u00e9sre vagy k\u00e9rd\u00e9sre adott hihet\u0151 magyar\u00e1zat vagy megold\u00e1s, amely felt\u00e9telez\u00e9seken vagy el\u0151zetes ismereteken alapul. Ez egy meg\u00e9rz\u00e9s, amelyet tov\u00e1bbi kutat\u00e1sokkal \u00e9s k\u00eds\u00e9rletekkel kell igazolni vagy c\u00e1folni. A j\u00f3slat ezzel szemben egy konkr\u00e9t \u00e1ll\u00edt\u00e1s vagy eredm\u00e9ny, amely a hipot\u00e9zis \u00e9s a rendelkez\u00e9sre \u00e1ll\u00f3 inform\u00e1ci\u00f3k alapj\u00e1n a j\u00f6v\u0151ben v\u00e1rhat\u00f3an bek\u00f6vetkezik.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A j\u00f3slat l\u00e9nyeg\u00e9ben egy hipot\u00e9zis ellen\u0151rizhet\u0151 k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nye. Ez\u00e9rt el\u0151sz\u00f6r a hipot\u00e9zis \u00e1ll, majd az abb\u00f3l levezetett j\u00f3slat k\u00f6vetkezik, \u00e9s a j\u00f3slatot k\u00eds\u00e9rletekkel vagy megfigyel\u00e9sekkel tesztelik a hipot\u00e9zis meger\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9se vagy megc\u00e1fol\u00e1sa \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hogyan fogalmazzunk meg tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nem k\u00f6nny\u0171 tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st megfogalmazni, mivel alapos ismereteket ig\u00e9nyel a t\u00e9m\u00e1r\u00f3l \u00e9s a k\u00f6rnyezetr\u0151l, amelyben az t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik, mert egy rossz tipp sok ember\u00e9letbe ker\u00fclhet. \u00cdme teh\u00e1t n\u00e9h\u00e1ny l\u00e9p\u00e9s, amely seg\u00edthet meg\u00e9rteni a tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st \u00e9s annak megfogalmaz\u00e1s\u00e1t:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. A jelens\u00e9g meghat\u00e1roz\u00e1sa<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    El\u0151sz\u00f6r is d\u00f6ntse el, hogy melyik term\u00e9szeti rendszert vagy jelens\u00e9get szeretn\u00e9 megj\u00f3solni. Ehhez alapul szolg\u00e1lhatnak megfigyel\u00e9seid, el\u0151zetes ismereteid vagy a tudom\u00e1nyos szakirodalom. Gy\u0151z\u0151dj meg r\u00f3la, hogy a kiv\u00e1lasztott jelens\u00e9g az er\u0151ss\u00e9ged, \u00e9s kezdd el a hipot\u00e9zis kidolgoz\u00e1s\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1.  Hipot\u00e9zis kidolgoz\u00e1sa<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      \u00c1ll\u00edtson fel egy ellen\u0151rizhet\u0151 hipot\u00e9zist, amely megmagyar\u00e1zza, hogy a jelens\u00e9g hogyan vagy mi\u00e9rt fordul el\u0151 az \u00d6n \u00e1ltal meg\u00e9rtett jelens\u00e9g alapj\u00e1n. A hipot\u00e9zisednek konkr\u00e9tnak \u00e9s m\u00e9rhet\u0151nek kell lennie, \u00e9s tudom\u00e1nyos alapelveken \u00e9s el\u0151zetes ismereteken kell alapulnia. K\u00e9rheted el\u0151deid seg\u00edts\u00e9g\u00e9t, hogy pontosan elk\u00e9sz\u00fclj ezzel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      1.  K\u00e9sz\u00edtsen el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        A hipot\u00e9zisb\u0151l kiindulva k\u00e9sz\u00edtsen egy konkr\u00e9t el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st vagy el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek sorozat\u00e1t, amely kifejezi, hogy \u00d6n szerint mi fog t\u00f6rt\u00e9nni, ha a hipot\u00e9zis helyesnek bizonyul. A j\u00f3slatodnak k\u00eds\u00e9rletekkel vagy megfigyel\u00e9ssel ellen\u0151rizhet\u0151nek kell lennie, \u00e9s logikus \u00e9rvel\u00e9ssel kell al\u00e1t\u00e1masztania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        1. Teszteld a j\u00f3slatodat<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

          V\u00e9gezzen k\u00eds\u00e9rleteket vagy megfigyel\u00e9seket az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s\u00e9nek ellen\u0151rz\u00e9s\u00e9re. A vizsg\u00e1lat c\u00e9lja a hipot\u00e9zis \u00e9s az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s meger\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9se vagy megc\u00e1fol\u00e1sa kell, hogy legyen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          1. Elemezze az eredm\u00e9nyeket<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

            Elemezze a teszt eredm\u00e9nyeit, hogy meg\u00e1llap\u00edtsa, pontos volt-e az el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se. Ha a j\u00f3slatodat al\u00e1t\u00e1masztott\u00e1k a bizony\u00edt\u00e9kok, akkor arra k\u00f6vetkeztethetsz, hogy a hipot\u00e9zised val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg igaz. Ha a j\u00f3slatodat nem t\u00e1masztott\u00e1k al\u00e1, akkor lehet, hogy fel\u00fcl kell vizsg\u00e1lnod a hipot\u00e9zisedet \u00e9s a j\u00f3slatodat, \u00e9s tov\u00e1bbi teszteket kell v\u00e9gezned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            P\u00e9ld\u00e1k a tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

            J\u00f3sl\u00e1s a tudom\u00e1ny szinte minden ter\u00fclet\u00e9n el\u0151fordul, \u00e9s ezek k\u00f6z\u00fcl a legfontosabbak, amelyeket az emberek a mai napig k\u00f6vetnek, a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151k:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            1.  Csillag\u00e1szat:<\/strong> A napfogyatkoz\u00e1s hely\u00e9nek \u00e9s bek\u00f6vetkezt\u00e9nek el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se a Hold \u00e9s a F\u00f6ld mozg\u00e1sa \u00e9s helyzete alapj\u00e1n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            2.  Pszichol\u00f3gia:<\/strong> A kor\u00e1bbi kutat\u00e1sok \u00e9s elm\u00e9letek alapj\u00e1n azt j\u00f3solja, hogy a pozit\u00edv visszajelz\u00e9st kap\u00f3 egy\u00e9neknek magasabb lesz az \u00f6nbecs\u00fcl\u00e9se, mint a negat\u00edv visszajelz\u00e9st kap\u00f3knak.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            3. Kl\u00edmatudom\u00e1ny:<\/strong> Az \u00fcvegh\u00e1zhat\u00e1s\u00fa g\u00e1zok emberi eredet\u0171 kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1b\u00f3l ered\u0151 glob\u00e1lis h\u0151m\u00e9rs\u00e9klet- \u00e9s tengerszint-emelked\u00e9s el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            4. Fizika: <\/strong>Egy l\u00f6ved\u00e9k \u00fatj\u00e1nak el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se a kezdeti sebess\u00e9g, a kil\u00f6v\u00e9si sz\u00f6g \u00e9s a l\u00e9gellen\u00e1ll\u00e1s alapj\u00e1n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            5. \u00d6kol\u00f3gia<\/strong>: Az \u00e9l\u0151helyek fragment\u00e1l\u00f3d\u00e1s\u00e1nak a biol\u00f3giai sokf\u00e9les\u00e9g cs\u00f6kken\u00e9s\u00e9re gyakorolt hat\u00e1s\u00e1nak el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se a fragment\u00e1lt \u00e9l\u0151helyek ter\u00fclete \u00e9s a fajok elterjed\u00e9se alapj\u00e1n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            6. K\u00e9mia<\/strong>: Egy k\u00e9miai reakci\u00f3 kimenetel\u00e9nek el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se a reakci\u00f3ban r\u00e9szt vev\u0151 anyagok \u00e9s a reakci\u00f3 k\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00e9nyei alapj\u00e1n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            7. Geol\u00f3gia<\/strong>: A f\u00f6ldreng\u00e9s hely\u00e9nek \u00e9s er\u0151ss\u00e9g\u00e9nek el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se a t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi szeizmikus aktivit\u00e1s \u00e9s a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 t\u00f6r\u00e9svonalai alapj\u00e1n.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            8. Biol\u00f3gia<\/strong>: Egy gy\u00f3gyszer betegre gyakorolt hat\u00e1s\u00e1nak el\u0151rejelz\u00e9se a gy\u00f3gyszer k\u00e9miai szerkezete \u00e9s biol\u00f3giai hat\u00e1smechanizmusa alapj\u00e1n.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              A tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9s lehet\u0151v\u00e9 teszi sz\u00e1munkra, hogy pontos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9seket k\u00e9sz\u00edts\u00fcnk, jav\u00edtsuk a term\u00e9szeti jelens\u00e9gekr\u0151l \u00e9s rendszerekr\u0151l szerzett ismereteinket, \u00e9s megold\u00e1sokat tal\u00e1ljunk a kih\u00edv\u00e1st jelent\u0151 probl\u00e9m\u00e1kra. A tudom\u00e1nyos ismeretek folyamatos fejl\u0151d\u00e9s\u00e9vel a tudom\u00e1nyos alapokon nyugv\u00f3 pontos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9sek k\u00e9sz\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9nek k\u00e9pess\u00e9ge egyre fontosabb\u00e1 v\u00e1lik a vil\u00e1gunk el\u0151tt \u00e1ll\u00f3 kih\u00edv\u00e1sok kezel\u00e9s\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Nem szeretn\u00e9 az infografik\u00e1t a null\u00e1r\u00f3l kezdeni?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

              Nos, meg\u00e9rtj\u00fck a f\u00e1jdalmadat. Tud\u00f3sk\u00e9nt nem k\u00f6nny\u0171 \u00d6nnek egyed\u00fcl elk\u00e9sz\u00edteni a kutat\u00e1sait \u00e9s az infografik\u00e1kat. Ez\u00e9rt itt vagyunk mi, hogy seg\u00edt\u0151 kezet ny\u00fajtsunk. A Mind the Graph<\/a>, seg\u00edt\u00fcnk megtervezni egy szem\u00e9lyre szabott infografik\u00e1t, mindezt a semmib\u0151l, amely igazodik a t\u00e9m\u00e1j\u00e1hoz. Regisztr\u00e1ljon most, hogy elk\u00e9sz\u00fclj\u00f6n az infografik\u00e1ja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              <\/div>\n\n\n
              \n
              \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n
              <\/div>\n\n\n\n
              \n
              Kezdjen alkotni az Mind the Graph-vel<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
              <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              Ismerje meg r\u00e9szletesen a tudom\u00e1nyos el\u0151rejelz\u00e9st \u00e9s azt, hogyan tervezheti meg ezt a folyamatot, amely el\u0151re meghat\u00e1rozott adatok alapj\u00e1n elemzi a k\u00f6z\u00f6s elm\u00e9leteket.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":28573,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[959,28],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nScientific Prediction: A "guess" that can save us a lot of time - Mind the Graph Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Learn in detail about scientific prediction and how to plan this process that analyzes common theories in advance based on predefined data.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/hu\/tudomanyos-elorejelzes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Scientific Prediction: A "guess" that can save us a lot of time\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Learn in detail about scientific prediction and how to plan this process that analyzes common theories in advance based on predefined data.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/hu\/tudomanyos-elorejelzes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Mind the Graph Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-07-11T17:22:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-07-11T20:29:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/scientific-prediction-blog.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1124\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"613\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Sowjanya Pedada\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Scientific Prediction: A "guess" that can save us a lot of time\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Learn in detail about scientific prediction and how to plan this process that analyzes common theories in advance based on predefined data.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:image\" content=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/scientific-prediction-blog.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Sowjanya Pedada\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Scientific Prediction: A \"guess\" that can save us a lot of time - 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