{"id":11109,"date":"2020-04-08T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T11:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11109"},"modified":"2022-07-21T12:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T15:23:18","slug":"coronavirus-lethality-is-the-death-rate-8-or-0-8-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/fr\/coronavirus-lethalite-est-le-taux-de-mort-8-ou-0-8-en-italie\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u00e9talit\u00e9 des coronavirus : le taux de mortalit\u00e9 est-il de 8 ou de 0,8% en Italie ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les chiffres concernant la l\u00e9talit\u00e9 du coronavirus diff\u00e8rent consid\u00e9rablement. Alors qu'en Italie, les autorit\u00e9s font \u00e9tat d'un taux de mortalit\u00e9 d'environ 8-9%, l'Allemagne et le Japon ont rapport\u00e9 des chiffres plus proches de 1-2%.<\/p>\n<p>Pourquoi cela se produit-il ?<\/p>\n<p>Le rapport d'aujourd'hui fait \u00e9tat d'un peu plus de 6 000 d\u00e9c\u00e8s pour 64 000 infections confirm\u00e9es par le coronavirus. C'est un taux de mortalit\u00e9 de 9,3%. Assez \u00e9lev\u00e9, inqui\u00e9tant.<\/p>\n<p>Cependant, le Japon a signal\u00e9 33 d\u00e9c\u00e8s sur ~1K cas (taux de mortalit\u00e9 de 3,3%) et l'Allemagne n'a signal\u00e9 que 159 d\u00e9c\u00e8s sur pr\u00e8s de 34K cas confirm\u00e9s... attendez, cela ne repr\u00e9sente qu'un taux de mortalit\u00e9 de 0,5%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"721\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png 721w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><figcaption>Six fois moins que le Japon et pr\u00e8s de 20 fois moins que l'Italie. Qu'est-ce que l'Allemagne fait diff\u00e9remment ?<br> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> J'ai d\u00e9j\u00e0 une opinion, mais couvrons toutes les th\u00e9ories disponibles :<br> &nbsp;1) Le plus \u00e9vident : le syst\u00e8me de sant\u00e9 en Allemagne est mieux \u00e9quip\u00e9.<br> 2) Les Allemands utilisent des traitements innovants.<br> 3) L'Allemagne n'en est qu'aux premiers jours de l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, il n'y a donc pas eu \"assez de temps\" pour que le taux de mortalit\u00e9 se stabilise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Et le moins \u00e9vident : ils testent simplement plus de personnes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quel est son impact ? DIX FOIS, au moins. Ils testent dix fois plus de personnes, et c'est ce qui fait baisser le taux de mortalit\u00e9, en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Les taux d'infection sont probablement 10 fois plus faibles<\/li><li>Les taux de mortalit\u00e9 sont probablement 10 fois plus faibles<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous ne disposons tout simplement pas d'une estimation pr\u00e9cise du nombre total de personnes touch\u00e9es, car beaucoup d'entre elles ne d\u00e9veloppent pas les sympt\u00f4mes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>L'explication la plus simple est souvent la bonne. C'est ce qu'on appelle le rasoir d'Okam en science... et c'est une explication assez simple pour cette divergence dans les chiffres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En outre, ce chiffre est plus proche de la \"perception\" des professionnels de la sant\u00e9 en premi\u00e8re ligne. En proportion, peu de personnes meurent de l'infection par le coronavirus - donc pas si grave - mais les chiffres sont \u00e9lev\u00e9s car la viralit\u00e9 est sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle \u00e0 laquelle nous sommes habitu\u00e9s pour les maladies respiratoires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"494\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png 494w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255-300x275.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><figcaption>En fait, les Allemands testent activement les gens, m\u00eame s'ils ne pr\u00e9sentent pas de sympt\u00f4mes. C'est la seule fa\u00e7on d'avoir une estimation pr\u00e9cise du taux d'infection dans la population.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si je devais avoir une phrase \u00e0 dire ici, ce serait : ne paniquez pas.  Ces temps sont r\u00e9volus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Essayez de pr\u00e9venir l'infection, lavez-vous les mains, maintenez le syst\u00e8me immunitaire bien install\u00e9, et c'est tout. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La probabilit\u00e9 d'une cause l\u00e9tale est faible, si des soins critiques ad\u00e9quats sont disponibles. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Un traitement est en cours, nous aurons des vaccins pour l'ann\u00e9e prochaine et toute cette histoire passera. Je parie que l'infection \u00e0 coronavirus ne sera pas un sujet tendance lors de votre prochain anniversaire.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>J'ai d\u00e9j\u00e0 une opinion, mais couvrons toutes les th\u00e9ories disponibles :  1) La plus \u00e9vidente : le syst\u00e8me de sant\u00e9 allemand est mieux \u00e9quip\u00e9 2) Les Allemands utilisent des traitements innovants 3) L'Allemagne en est encore aux premiers jours de l'\u00e9pid\u00e9mie, il n'y a donc pas eu \"assez de temps\" pour que le taux de mortalit\u00e9 se stabilise Et [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419],"tags":[388,444,443,445,447,446,448,449],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronvairus lethality: 8 or 0.8% in Italy? - See the blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus lethality differ dramatically between countries.Italy reports 8-9%, while Germany and reported less than 1-2%.Why? 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He has a Ph.D. and solid scientific background in Psychopharmacology and experience as a Guest Researcher at the Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry (Germany) and Researcher in D'Or Institute for Research and Education (IDOR, Brazil). Fabricio holds over 2500 citations in Google Scholar. He has 10 years of experience in small innovative businesses, with relevant experience in product design and innovation management. 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