{"id":11109,"date":"2020-04-08T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T11:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11109"},"modified":"2022-07-21T12:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T15:23:18","slug":"coronavirus-lethality-is-the-death-rate-8-or-0-8-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/es\/coronavirus-esta-la-tasa-de-muerte-8-o-0-8-en-italia\/","title":{"rendered":"Letalidad del coronavirus: \u00bfla tasa de mortalidad es de 8 o de 0,8% en Italia?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Las cifras sobre la letalidad del coronavirus difieren dr\u00e1sticamente. Mientras que en Italia, las autoridades informan de una tasa de mortalidad en torno a 8-9%, Alemania y Jap\u00f3n informaron de cifras m\u00e1s cercanas a 1-2%.<\/p>\n<p>\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 ocurre eso?<\/p>\n<p>La cifra reportada hoy fue de un poco m\u00e1s de 6K muertes para 64K infecciones confirmadas por coronavirus. Eso es una tasa de mortalidad de 9,3%. Bastante alto, preocupante.<\/p>\n<p>Sin embargo, Jap\u00f3n inform\u00f3 de 33 muertes de ~1K casos (tasa de mortalidad de 3,3%) y Alemania inform\u00f3 de s\u00f3lo 159 muertes en cerca de 34K casos confirmados... espera, eso es s\u00f3lo una tasa de mortalidad de 0,5%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"721\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png 721w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><figcaption>Seis veces menos que Jap\u00f3n y casi 20 veces menos que Italia. \u00bfQu\u00e9 hace Alemania de forma diferente?<br> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Ya tengo una opini\u00f3n, pero vamos a cubrir todas las teor\u00edas disponibles:<br> &nbsp;1) La m\u00e1s obvia: el sistema sanitario de Alemania est\u00e1 mejor equipado<br> 2) Los alemanes utilizan tratamientos innovadores<br> 3) Alemania se encuentra todav\u00eda en los primeros d\u00edas del brote, por lo que no hubo \"tiempo suficiente\" para que la tasa de mortalidad se estabilizara<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Y la menos obvia: simplemente est\u00e1n probando a m\u00e1s gente. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00bfQu\u00e9 impacto tiene? DIEZ VECES, por lo menos. Est\u00e1n haciendo pruebas a diez veces m\u00e1s personas, y eso es lo que hace que la tasa de mortalidad baje tanto, as\u00ed que en realidad:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Las tasas de infecci\u00f3n son probablemente 10 veces menores<\/li><li>Las tasas de mortalidad son probablemente 10 veces menores<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Sencillamente, no tenemos una estimaci\u00f3n precisa del n\u00famero total de individuos afectados, porque muchos de ellos no desarrollan los s\u00edntomas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La explicaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s f\u00e1cil suele ser la correcta. Se llama la Navaja de Okam en la ciencia... y es una explicaci\u00f3n bastante simple para esta discrepancia en los n\u00fameros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Adem\u00e1s, esta cifra se acerca m\u00e1s a la \"percepci\u00f3n\" de los profesionales sanitarios en primera l\u00ednea. En proporci\u00f3n, no son muchas las personas que mueren a causa de la infecci\u00f3n por coronavirus -por lo tanto, no es tan grave-, sin embargo, las cifras son elevadas porque la viralidad es superior a la que estamos acostumbrados para las enfermedades respiratorias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"494\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png 494w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255-300x275.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><figcaption>De hecho, los alemanes est\u00e1n realizando pruebas de forma activa a las personas, aunque no presenten s\u00edntomas. Es la \u00fanica manera de tener una estimaci\u00f3n precisa de la tasa de infecci\u00f3n en la poblaci\u00f3n.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Si pudiera decir una frase aqu\u00ed, ser\u00eda: no te asustes.  Estos tiempos se han acabado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trata de prevenir el contagio, l\u00e1vate las manos, mant\u00e9n el sistema de inmunidad bien fijado, y ya est\u00e1. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La probabilidad de una causa letal es baja, si se dispone de los cuidados cr\u00edticos adecuados. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El tratamiento est\u00e1 en marcha, tendremos vacunas para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o y todo esto pasar\u00e1. Apuesto a que la infecci\u00f3n por coronavirus no ser\u00e1 trending topic para tu pr\u00f3xima fiesta de cumplea\u00f1os.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ya tengo una opini\u00f3n, pero vamos a cubrir todas las teor\u00edas disponibles:  1) La m\u00e1s obvia: el sistema sanitario de Alemania est\u00e1 mejor equipado 2) Los alemanes est\u00e1n utilizando tratamientos innovadores 3) Alemania a\u00fan est\u00e1 en los primeros d\u00edas del brote, por lo que no hubo \"tiempo suficiente\" para que la tasa de mortalidad se estabilizara Y [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419],"tags":[388,444,443,445,447,446,448,449],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronvairus lethality: 8 or 0.8% in Italy? - See the blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus lethality differ dramatically between countries.Italy reports 8-9%, while Germany and reported less than 1-2%.Why? 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