{"id":11109,"date":"2020-04-08T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-08T11:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11109"},"modified":"2022-07-21T12:23:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-21T15:23:18","slug":"coronavirus-lethality-is-the-death-rate-8-or-0-8-in-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/coronavirus-dodelighed-er-dodsraten-8-eller-0-8-i-italien\/","title":{"rendered":"Coronavirus-d\u00f8delighed: Er d\u00f8dsraten 8 eller 0,8% i Italien?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Tallene for d\u00f8deligheden af coronavirus varierer dramatisk. Mens myndighederne i Italien rapporterer en d\u00f8delighed p\u00e5 omkring 8-9%, rapporterede Tyskland og Japan tal t\u00e6ttere p\u00e5 1-2%.<\/p>\n<p>Hvorfor sker det?<\/p>\n<p>Dagens talrapport l\u00f8d p\u00e5 lidt over 6.000 d\u00f8dsfald for 64.000 bekr\u00e6ftede coronavirus-infektioner. Det er en d\u00f8delighed p\u00e5 9,3%. Ganske h\u00f8jt, bekymrende.<\/p>\n<p>Men Japan rapporterede 33 d\u00f8dsfald ud af ~1.000 tilf\u00e6lde (3,3% d\u00f8delighed), og Tyskland rapporterede kun 159 d\u00f8dsfald i t\u00e6t p\u00e5 34.000 bekr\u00e6ftede tilf\u00e6lde ... vent, det er kun 0,5% d\u00f8delighed.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"721\" height=\"595\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11112\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254.png 721w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-254-300x248.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 721px) 100vw, 721px\" \/><figcaption>Seks gange lavere end Japan og n\u00e6sten 20 gange lavere end Italien. Hvad g\u00f8r Tyskland anderledes?<br> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p> Jeg har allerede en mening, men lad os gennemg\u00e5 alle de tilg\u00e6ngelige teorier:<br> &nbsp;1) Det mest indlysende: sundhedssystemet i Tyskland er bedre rustet.<br> 2) Tyskerne bruger innovative behandlinger<br> 3) Tyskland er stadig i begyndelsen af udbruddet, s\u00e5 der var ikke \"tid nok\" til, at d\u00f8deligheden kunne stabilisere sig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Og det mindre indlysende: De tester simpelthen flere mennesker. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hvor meget p\u00e5virker det? Ti gange, mindst. De tester ti gange flere mennesker, og det er det, der bringer d\u00f8deligheden s\u00e5 langt ned, s\u00e5 i virkeligheden:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>Infektionsraten er sandsynligvis 10 gange lavere<\/li><li>D\u00f8deligheden er sandsynligvis 10 gange lavere<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Vi har simpelthen ikke et n\u00f8jagtigt sk\u00f8n over det samlede antal ber\u00f8rte personer, fordi mange af dem ikke udvikler symptomerne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Den nemmeste forklaring er ofte den rigtige. Det kaldes Okam Razor i videnskaben ... og det er en ret enkel forklaring p\u00e5 denne uoverensstemmelse i tallene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dette tal er ogs\u00e5 t\u00e6ttere p\u00e5 \"opfattelsen\" hos sundhedspersonale i frontlinjen. Forholdsm\u00e6ssigt er der ikke mange, der d\u00f8r af coronavirusinfektionen - s\u00e5 det er ikke s\u00e5 alvorligt - men tallene er h\u00f8je, fordi viraliteten er h\u00f8jere end den, vi er vant til for luftvejssygdomme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"494\" height=\"453\" src=\"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11116\" srcset=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255.png 494w, https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/image-255-300x275.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" \/><figcaption>Tyskerne tester faktisk aktivt folk, selv om de ikke har symptomer. Det er den eneste m\u00e5de at f\u00e5 et n\u00f8jagtigt sk\u00f8n over infektionsraten i befolkningen.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Hvis jeg kunne sige \u00e9n s\u00e6tning her, ville det v\u00e6re: G\u00e5 ikke i panik.  Denne tid er forbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pr\u00f8v at forebygge infektioner, vask dine h\u00e6nder, hold immunforsvaret godt i gang, og det er det. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sandsynligheden for en d\u00f8delig \u00e5rsag er lav, hvis der er tilstr\u00e6kkelig kritisk pleje til r\u00e5dighed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En behandling er p\u00e5 vej, vi vil have vacciner det n\u00e6ste \u00e5r, og det hele vil g\u00e5 over. Jeg vil v\u00e6dde p\u00e5, at coronavirus-infektion ikke vil v\u00e6re et popul\u00e6rt emne til din n\u00e6ste f\u00f8dselsdagsfest.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jeg har allerede en mening, men lad os gennemg\u00e5 alle de tilg\u00e6ngelige teorier:  1) Den mest indlysende: sundhedssystemet i Tyskland er bedre rustet 2) Tyskerne bruger innovative behandlinger 3) Tyskland er stadig i udbruddets tidlige dage, s\u00e5 der var ikke \"tid nok\" til, at d\u00f8deligheden kunne stabilisere sig Og [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419],"tags":[388,444,443,445,447,446,448,449],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Coronvairus lethality: 8 or 0.8% in Italy? - See the blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coronavirus lethality differ dramatically between countries.Italy reports 8-9%, while Germany and reported less than 1-2%.Why? 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He has a Ph.D. and solid scientific background in Psychopharmacology and experience as a Guest Researcher at the Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry (Germany) and Researcher in D'Or Institute for Research and Education (IDOR, Brazil). Fabricio holds over 2500 citations in Google Scholar. He has 10 years of experience in small innovative businesses, with relevant experience in product design and innovation management. Connect with him on LinkedIn - Fabricio Pamplona.","sameAs":["http:\/\/mindthegraph.com","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/fabriciopamplona"],"url":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/author\/fabricio\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11109"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11109"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11109\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16036,"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11109\/revisions\/16036"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11111"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}