{"id":11022,"date":"2020-03-23T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-23T12:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.mindthegraph.com\/?p=11022"},"modified":"2022-11-24T12:29:07","modified_gmt":"2022-11-24T15:29:07","slug":"the-impact-of-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/virkningen-af-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemy\/","title":{"rendered":"Styrken ved social isolation til at reducere virkningen af coronavirus Covid-19 pandemi"},"content":{"rendered":"

At holde afstand er den bedste foranstaltning, man kan tr\u00e6ffe for at forhindre virusoverf\u00f8rsel gennem luftvejene.<\/p>\n

Folk overf\u00f8rer til andre mennesker, mens de taler, snuser i n\u00e6sen, nyser eller giver h\u00e5nd. Nogle siger, at to meter (2m) er den afstand, vi b\u00f8r holde andre v\u00e6k fra som en forebyggende foranstaltning.<\/p>\n

Billedet nedenfor var udgivet i New York Times, med data fra Center for Disease Control (CDC).<\/a> fra USA. Enkelt sagt viser det, hvordan beskyttelsesforanstaltninger som social isolation og brug af masker kan \"flade\" kurven ud og derfor teoretisk set h\u00e6mme \"toppen\" i antallet af tilf\u00e6lde.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Selvom det samlede antal tilf\u00e6lde er n\u00f8jagtigt det samme, betyder en udfladning af kurven, at sundhedssystemet ikke bliver overbelastet, og at chancen for at helbrede inficerede personer med den rette st\u00f8tte p\u00e5 en intensivafdeling er st\u00f8rre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uanset hvor forberedt et land er med hensyn til antallet af sengepladser, er ingen forberedt p\u00e5 en epidemi som denne. Dybest set er det aldrig sket. Og det v\u00e6rste i tilf\u00e6ldet med coronavirus Covid-19 er, at selv folk uden symptomer kan overf\u00f8re det<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C.D.C.-papir med titlen \"Retningslinjer for forebyggelse af pandemisk influenza i lokalsamfundet<\/a>,\" viste, hvad Dr. Harris kaldte to epi-kurver. Den ene havde en stejl top, der indikerede en b\u00f8lge af coronavirus-udbrud p\u00e5 kort sigt; den anden havde en fladere h\u00e6ldning, der indikerede en mere gradvis infektionsrate over en l\u00e6ngere periode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den blidere kurve resulterer i, at f\u00e6rre mennesker smittes p\u00e5 dette kritiske tidspunkt - hvilket forhindrer en b\u00f8lge, der ville oversv\u00f8mme sundhedssystemet, og i sidste ende, h\u00e5ber man, resulterer i f\u00e6rre d\u00f8dsfald. For en mere detaljeret analyse, se en nylig artikel i The Lancet<\/a>, \"Hvordan vil landebaserede afhj\u00e6lpende foranstaltninger p\u00e5virke forl\u00f8bet af COVID-19-epidemien?\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Den m\u00e5de, dette f\u00e6nomen spreder sig p\u00e5, udfordrer vores evne til at forudsige de n\u00e6ste skridt, fordi vi ikke er vant til eksponentiel t\u00e6nkning. Infografikken nedenfor hj\u00e6lper os med at forst\u00e5, hvad det vil sige at holde sig v\u00e6k fra andre mennesker i et stykke tid. Denne foranstaltning har til hensigt at reducere virussens \"transmissionsindeks\" fra n\u00e6sten \"tre\" til mindre end \u00e9n. Tjek billedet nedenfor for at forst\u00e5 den effekt, det har p\u00e5 5 dage og 30 dage.<\/p>\n\n\n

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L\u00e6r, hvordan du kan forestille dig en eksponentiel udvikling af coronavirus, og hvordan social isolation kan hj\u00e6lpe med at reducere sygdomsoverf\u00f8rslen. Mere end det, bliv hjemme, familie og n\u00e6re venner betragtes som en af de vigtigste klynger for forurening<\/a> bortset fra sundhedstjenester og hospitaler.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

Hvis coronavirusset f\u00f8lger sit naturlige forl\u00f8b, vil \u00e9n person sandsynligvis overf\u00f8re Covid-19 til 2,5 andre personer p\u00e5 fem dage. Fremadrettet vil de samme 2,5 personer have p\u00e5virket i alt 406 personer. Det er en eksponentiel udvikling. Det er enormt. Hvis vi halverer overf\u00f8rselshastigheden, betyder det, at kun 15 personer er p\u00e5virket efter 30 dage. Det kr\u00e6ver ikke meget at forst\u00e5 den positive indvirkning, det har p\u00e5 presset p\u00e5 sundhedssystemet.<\/p>\n

Hvis du vil l\u00e6se en meget detaljeret forklaring p\u00e5, hvordan denne type foranstaltning fungerer, og hvorfor den har betydning, Vi anbefaler, at du l\u00e6ser dette indl\u00e6g<\/a>. Hvis du er bekymret for, at social isolation kan p\u00e5virke nogle mennesker, der ikke er f\u00f8lelsesm\u00e6ssigt stabile eller tidligere har haft helbredsproblemer, s\u00e5 har du ret. if\u00f8lge dette interessante debatindl\u00e6g p\u00e5 Science<\/a>. Det er lidt et \"h\u00f8nen eller \u00e6gget\"-dilemma, men social isolation er noget, vi helt sikkert b\u00f8r g\u00f8re i denne tid. Det bedste tip er at finde p\u00e5 noget at lave, distrahere dig selv og fors\u00f8ge at holde kontakten med dine for\u00e6ldre.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Selvom det samlede antal tilf\u00e6lde er n\u00f8jagtigt det samme, betyder en udfladning af kurven, at sundhedssystemet ikke bliver overbelastet, og at chancen for at helbrede smittede personer, der f\u00e5r den rette st\u00f8tte p\u00e5 en intensivafdeling, er st\u00f8rre. Det betyder ikke noget, hvor forberedt et land er med hensyn til antal senge, [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[419,66,958],"tags":[388,387,423,421,422,51,53,250,424,420],"yoast_head":"\nThe power of social isolation in reducing impact of Covid-19<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Keep some distance is the best measure one can take to prevent viral transmission through the respiratory pathways.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mindthegraph.com\/blog\/da\/virkningen-af-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"da_DK\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The power of social isolation in reducing impact 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